With Patrick Everson
FOX Sports Gambler
There’s no real debate about which game is the biggest in the NFL betting market this week. How can you argue otherwise when two Hall of Fame quarterbacks face off in the first ballot?
You know what’s even better? People on both sides of the counter have a lot to say about Tom Brady and Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who hosted Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers.
Below is information on this clash and a few betting nuggets on NFL Week 3 odds and college football Week 4 odds.
Rodgers vs Brady
Sharp bookies won’t always get it right. If they did, they’d all be millionaires. But they spend much more time and effort on analysis, analytics, models and the like. So me, you, and most people who bet on sports tend to make much more informed bets.
A professional bookie I contact regularly felt great about the Saints +3 spread last week. But the Pirates’ defense made another strong effort and New Orleans lost 20-10.
Still, this sharp player is fading the Bucs again this week. Tampa Bay’s large corps is either suspended (Mike Evans) or dealing with injuries (Chris Godwin/Julio Jones). And the Bucs’ offensive line has been bombed too, starting this national FOX broadcast at 4:25 PM ET on Sunday.
“The Tampa O-line is a disaster. Green Bay game. I got the Packers +3 opener,” he said. “Green Bay is solid in the trenches on both sides. Brady’s guns were blown up and suspended.”
You can no longer get Packers +3 as this line was only available earlier in the week. Depending on where you’re betting, Green Bay is now either 1.5 points or 1 point underdog because the wise guys didn’t stop at +3.
“We received a bet from a reputable player on Packers +2 Tuesday,” WynnBet merchant John Manica said, noting that his shop is among Packers’ +1.
Most punters will need the Indianapolis Colts this weekend to come together and take on the Kansas City Chiefs. Rex Beyers, head of betting at PlayUp USA after previous pauses at SuperBook and Caesars Sports, among others, hopes to be in the rare spot that needs the Chiefs.
“The Colts looked absolutely awful and awful. They were in trouble and they weren’t doing very well last week,” Beyers said, noting Indy’s stunning 24-0 loss at Jacksonville. “Now the Colts are coming home against a team that went home without extra rest.”
As a matter of fact, KC defeated Los Angeles Chargers 27-24 in Week 2 Thursday night match. Still, the Colts showed great interest in PlayUp.
“If you give me a team to win the Super Bowl right now, I’ll get the Chiefs,” Beyers said. “My strength rating makes this game Chiefs -6. But ‘dog’ has a team of All-Star wise men at +6.5 and +6, and so this game is at 5.5. We need Chiefs, so we’ll be in the minority. It may change, but I don’t think it will.”
The match has a kick-off at 1 p.m. ET.
“This is going to be a game where we can hope and hope the Colts are as bad as we thought,” Beyers said, noting that Indianapolis could actually be that bad. “The number is huge. This is a Colts team that was embarrassed last week, and I expected a meticulous effort from them.”
Everyone knows that Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills can score points. But people felt sorry for Baltimore in the fourth quarter of Week 2 of Miami, and learned that the Dolphins could score as well. Tua Tagovailoa & Co. entered the fourth quarter trailing 35-14, scoring four goals and winning 42-38.
This led to a pretty big change overall.
“The Bils-Dolphins total opened between 50 and 51. [last week’s] “The numbers are forward-looking,” said Manica of WynnBet. “Then we saw the Dolphins put on a late offensive show coupled with the bills. [41-7] Defeating the Titans and a major move in the Over was quick to 54.”
There was some resistance when the total reached 54, bringing the total down to 52.5 by mid-week.
“I believe most models will have this total lower as two divisional rivals will collide. I wouldn’t be surprised to see this closeness lower than the current market of 52.5 or 53,” Manica said. said.
back to school
We’re cutting through all that NFL info to bring you a nugget of college football Week 4 odds. Fourth-place Michigan aims to continue rolling in the Big Ten opener at home against undefeated Maryland at noon ET on Saturday on FOX.
WynnBet led the Wolverines as home favorites by 17.5 points, dropping to -17 almost immediately on Sunday evening, then going to -16.5 shortly after. WynnBet is still at -16.5, most sportsbooks are at -17.
“We’ve written a significant number of tickets at prices below -17 of the current market in Michigan,” Manica said. Said. “Michigan has played weaker opponents and a step up from the competition. If the market crosses 17, I believe you’ll see a flood of money in Maryland, and there’s probably a lower number of Michigan supporters than that.”
Sunday Night Shuffle
OK, back to the NFL. One of the biggest line moves of the week so far is on Sunday night’s shootout between the San Francisco 49ers and the Denver Broncos. Denver opened a consensus favorite of 2.5 points, but on Monday the streak broke the fence and San Fran is now -1.5.
And that’s with the Niners losing season-starting QB Trey Lance after breaking his ankle last week. Said keen bookie absolutely loves the 49ers with Jimmy Garoppolo at the center.
“I got San Francisco +2.5 when it opened,” he said. “Before the season I talked about what Russell Wilson is for Denver – a below average QB. Denver is also doing well. And the 49ers are better off with Jimmy G in the QB.”
WynnBet’s Manica also noted the love of early Niners this week.
Referring to a loss in Seattle and a struggle to beat Houston, “The Broncos failed the eye test in their two games against two teams considered the weakest in the NFL,” Manica said. Said. “We’re seeing an increase in competition for the Broncos against a strong 49ers team. San Francisco is an angle that many like. The team is somewhat helped by the loss of Lance, because that reduces the result gap they would have with a younger quarterback.
“Jimmy G has a strong track record under Shanahan and the Broncos will try to take advantage as they’re still trying to figure that out with the new tracks they have.”
chargers‘The QB Dilemma
Justin Herbert looked pretty good in his Week 2 Thursday night game in Kansas City. His Chargers were on the verge of taking the lead in the fourth quarter before making an interception that returned 99 yards for a touchdown. The Bolts were victorious on the road by 4 points, but lost 27-24 to Los Angeles.
However, late in the game, Herbert injured his rib cartilage and it’s still unclear whether he’ll play against the Jacksonville Jaguars in Sunday’s 4:05 pm ET kickoff.
Still, many sportsbooks have the Jaguars-Chargers game to bet that Los Angeles is a 7-point home favorite. Beyers has neither of these, Herbert is yet too valuable for the spread to consider posting a line in this game.
“I’m not interested in booking the Chargers until I find out if the quarterback is playing. I’m not in the business of playing 50/50 with the NFL,” Beyers said. “We will not delay this game until we know who is playing. The streak and total will not close anywhere near 7 and 47.5 where they are now. The gap will be 3 points higher or 3 points lower, depending on whether Herbert plays. ”
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and a senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He has previously worked for Covers and is a prominent national sports betting journalist. He lives in Las Vegas, where he likes to play golf at 110 degrees. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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